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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!
Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | May 10, 2023
Headline: CPI report is good news for mortgage rates (HousingWire)
Key Takeaways:
- CPI increased 4.9% over the last 12 months down from 5% in March. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2021.
- CPI MoM increased 0.4% in April, after increasing 0.1% in March.
- The shelter index increased 8.1% over the last year, compared with an increase of 8.2% in March. The shelter was once again the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase.
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan | Press Release | May 26, 2023
Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director:
- Consumer sentiment slid 7% amid worries about the path of the economy, erasing nearly half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June.
- The year-ahead economic outlook plummeted 17% from last month. Long-run expectations plunged by 13% as well, indicating that consumers are concerned that any recession to come may cause lasting pain.
Consumer Spending
Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | May 26, 2023
Headline: Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot (Reuters)
Key Takeaways
- Core PCE Index (excluding food and energy):
- +0.4% MoM (March +0.3% MoM)
- +4.7% YoY (March: 4.6% YoY)
- “The reports added to labor market resilience, a rebound in factory production, and a pickup in business activity in suggesting the economy was experiencing a spring revival after hitting a speed bump in the first quarter. They also increased the chances that the U.S. central bank would hike rates in June.” -Reuters
- Consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March.
Small Business Optimism Index
National Federation of Independent Business | Report | May 9, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The overall index decreased by 1.1 points in April, following a decrease of 0.8 points in March.
- The top two business problems switched spots compared with April, now Labor Quality tops the list with Inflation in second place.
- “Consumer spending was unexpectedly strong, which will support labor demand. Unfortunately, most of that spending was satisfied by inventory reductions (-2.3 points), stuff made in prior quarters and so not production and income generation in the first quarter.”
Employee Situation Summary
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | May 5, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent.
- The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job increased by 346,000 over the month to 5.3 million.
Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data
Single-Family Rent Index
CoreLogic | Press Release | May 16, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Single-family rent growth dipped to 4.3% in March, compared with 5% in February. This marks the 11th straight month of year-over-year deceleration.
- Las Vegas and Phoenix saw rents decline YoY (-0.2%), but they were also in the top 5 for annual growth last year.
- Charlotte, Orlando, and St Louis posted the highest annual gains.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | May 30, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Before seasonal adjustment, the National Price Index posted a 1.3% MoM increase in March 2023, compared with a 0.2% MoM increase in February.
- Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus 12 in February).
The Southeast (+5.4% YoY) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2% YoY) remains the weakest.
April Rental Report
Realtor.com | Press Release | May 18, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- April 2023 marks the fifteenth month of slowing rent growth and the ninth month in a row with a single-digit rate of increase for 0-2 bedroom properties (0.3% YoY), the lowest rate since the onset of the pandemic.
- Rents in the Midwest continue to increase faster (4.9% YoY) while rents in the West (-2.6% YoY) and Sunbelt market (-2.5%) were lower than a year ago.
- As rent increases were more pronounced for new renters, many existing tenants chose to avoid higher costs by renewing their leases, resulting in lower renter mobility and a stickier CPI shelter index.
- An important factor contributing to this rapid slowing is the record-high new construction of multi-family, resulting in an increase in rental inventory.
- The rental vacancy rate has reached its highest point since the first quarter of 2021, standing at 6.4% in the first quarter of 2023.
New Residential Construction
HUD | Press Release | May 17, 2023
Headline: New Construction Picks Up in April, MF Construction Hits Historical High (Realtor.com)
Key Takeaways:
- Single Family permits have increased for 4 consecutive months, up 3% MoM.
- Multi-Family permits have decreased for 3 consecutive months, down 10% MoM.
- Number of Multi-Family units under construction is at its highest rate in over 12 months.
New Residential Sales
HUD | Press Release | May 23, 2023
Headline: New Home Sales Continue 7-month Rise (RISMedia)
Key Takeaways:
- New Homes Sales were up 4.1% MoM and up 11.8% YoY, compared with a 9.6% MoM increase and a decrease of 3.4% YoY in March.
- “New home sales increased for the seventh straight month in April due to low inventory pushing an increase of demand into the new construction market.” -RISMedia
- “This spring, new home sales are a more important part of the market than they would be in a more typical year. While sales of new single-family homes typically form less than 10% of national home sales, this April, the share increased to about 14%.” -Dr. Lisa Sturtevant (Bright MLS Chief Economist)
Pending Home Sales Index
NAR | Press Release | May 25, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Pending home sales were unchanged in April – increasing in three regions and decreasing in the Northeast
- Year over year, pending transactions dropped by 20.3%
- “Affordability challenges certainly remain and continue to hold back contract signings, but a sizeable increase in housing inventory will be critical to get more Americans moving.” -Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economist)
Existing Home Sales
NAR | Press Release | May 18, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Existing-home sales receded by 3.4% in April, while inventory increased by 7.2% from the previous month.
- Properties typically remained on the market for 22 days in April, down from 29 days in March but up from 17 days in April 2022.
- “Home sales are bouncing back and forth but remain above recent cyclical lows,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The combination of job gains, limited inventory, and fluctuating mortgage rates over the last several months have created an environment of push-pull housing demand.”
Quarterly Releases
Tricon Residential Q1 2023 Earnings
Key Takeaways:
- Tricon acquired 400 homes in Q1 2023 and expects to double that in Q2 2023 (which would be about 30% of what they acquired in Q2 2022).
- 2023 Guidance remains unchanged – 6-7.5% Same Home Expense growth and 6-7.5% Same Home Revenue growth.
- Significant YoY reductions in Repair & Maintenance (-20%) and Turnovers (-32.5%) helped limit the YoY expense growth to 2% in Q1 2023. Tricon has a goal of undertaking 80% of work orders in-house to manage costs, they are currently at 75%.
- The proprietary Resident app is now live in nine markets and has over 5,000 active users.
Invitation Homes Q1 2023 Earnings
Key Takeaways:
- INVH was a net seller in Q1 2023, buying 181 homes and selling 284 homes.
- The number of homes in the ‘Same Store Portfolio’: 77,016.
- Operating expenses grew 14% YoY, mainly attributed to increased property taxes and working through an increase in Turns.
- New lease rent growth was 5.7% YoY, vs. 14.5% YoY in Q1 2022.
- Overall guidance for 2023 remains unchanged.
AMH Q1 2023 Earnings
Key Takeaways:
- Acquired just 13 homes in Q1 2023, sold 670 properties, and delivered 466 properties through the AMH development program (i.e. new construction).
- Core Operating expenses for same-home properties grew 12.2% YoY mainly through property taxes and an increase in staffing.
- Average occupied days for same-home properties was 97.2% in Q1 2023 compared with 97.4% in Q1 2022.
- Generated 7.8% growth on new leases for the same-home properties.