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Looking for a place where all the key SFR data releases from the month are summarized in one place? You found it!
Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics | Press Release | April 12, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- CPI increased 5% over the last 12 months down from 6% in February. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021.
- CPI MoM increased 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.4% in February.
- The shelter index increased 8.2% over the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in all items less food and energy.
- Note this is still factoring in shelter costs from 12 months ago when prices were still very high.
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan | Press Release | April 28, 2023
Key Takeaways per Joanne Hsu, Survey Director:
- Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations are both up slightly MoM (2.4% and 2.2%), despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions.
- These improvements were balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses.
Consumer Spending
Bureau of Economic Analysis | Press Release | April 28, 2023
Headline: US consumer spending plateaus; core inflation remains strong
Key Takeaways
- Core PCE Index (excluding food and energy):
- +0.3% MoM (February: +0.3% MoM)
- +4.6% YoY (February: +4.7% YoY)
- The YoY comparison for the Core PCE Index was down slightly compared with the YoY rate for February but still holds well above the Fed target of 2%.
- “Persistent strength in underlying inflation pressures could see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again next week.” -Reuters
- The increase in spending for services was led by housing and utilities and health care services and was partly offset by the decrease in spending for goods like motor vehicles and parts and gasoline.
Small Business Optimism Index
National Federation of Independent Business | Report | April 11, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The overall index decreased by 0.8 points in March to 90.1, erasing the slight increase in February of 0.6 points.
- The percentage of owners who expect real sales to be higher deteriorated by six points.
- The top two business problems were 1) Inflation and 2) Labor Quality.
- “Optimism has been at recession levels for a year, but unexpectedly strong consumer spending has kept Main Street alive and supported strong labor demand.”
Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data
Single-Family Rent Index
CoreLogic | Press Release | April 18, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Single-family rent price growth continued to cool, to 5% YoY in February 2023 compared with 5.7% in January.
- Metro-level trends indicate that renters are perhaps seeking more affordable areas. St Louis is one of the least expensive markets in the index and topped the list for growth in February 2023.
- Phoenix and Las Vegas were in the top 5 for annual growth last year, 18.2% and 16.6% respectively, and are now at the bottom for YoY increases as of February 2023.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P CoreLogic | Press Release | April 25, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- The National Price Index reported a 2% YoY increase in February 2023, compared with a 3.7% YoY increase in January 2023.
- The Index showed a 0.2% MoM increase – the first month-over-month increase in 7 months.
- Miami (10.8%), Tampa (7.7%), and Atlanta (6.6%) had the largest YoY increases, and all 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending February 2023 versus the year ending January 2023.
March Rental Report
Realtor.com | Press Release | April 25, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- March 2023 marks the fourteenth month of slowing rent growth, and eighth month in a row with a single-digit rate of increase for 0-2 bedroom properties (2.5% YoY).
- Rents in the Midwest continue to increase faster (5.9% YoY), led by Indianapolis, IN (10.3%), Cincinnati, OH (9.6%), and Milwaukee, WI (7.8%).
- Rents in large Western coastal metros grew slower than rents in Northeastern metros. San Francisco (-0.8%) and Los Angeles (-0.8%) saw their first year-over-year declines in nearly 2 years.
- Rent growth rates in Sun Belt markets continue to slow (0.2% YoY), but the median asking rent was still $410 (27.2%) higher than four years ago (pre-pandemic).
New Residential Construction
HUD | Press Release | April 18, 2023
Headline: Single-family sector a bright spot for builders in March (HousingWire)
Key Takeaways:
- Most metrics were up in February 2023, and March numbers are showing a slowdown in new construction.
- Building Permits: -8.8% MoM | -24.8% YoY
- Housing Starts: -0.8% MoM | -17.2% YoY
- Housing Completions: -0.6% MoM | +12.9% YoY
- Building permits for Single Family were up 4.1% MoM
New Residential Sales
HUD | Press Release | April 25, 2023
Headline: New home sales rose by 9.6% in March (HousingWire)
Key Takeaways:
- New Home Sales were up 9.6% MoM and only down 3.4% YoY, compared with the small 1.1% MoM increase in February and the large 19% decrease YoY.
- In February 2023, 60% of new home sales happened when homes were not yet completed. In March 2023, that number increased to 65%. This underlines the strong month of housing starts in February and strong sales in March.
Pending Home Sales Index
NAR | Press Release | April 27, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Pending home sales dropped in March by 5.2% MoM and 23.2% YoY
- “The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
- With continued job gains and improving interest rates, NAR anticipates existing-home sales will steadily improve in the upcoming months but will still come up short on an annual figure – estimated at a decrease of 9.3% for 2023 before increasing by 15.4% in 2024
- Newly constructed home sales will increase from last year by 4.5% in 2023, to 670,000, due to more plentiful inventory in this segment of the market, and increase by another 11.9% in 2024, to 750,000.
Existing Home Sales
NAR | Press Release | April 20, 2023
Key Takeaways:
- Existing-home sales decreased 2.4% MoM in March, after jumping 14.5% in February.
- Inventory is improving ever so slightly – total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 980,000 units, up 1.0% from February and 5.4% from one year ago (930,000).
- “Home prices continue to rise in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted. “However, the more expensive areas of the country are adjusting to lower prices.”