Losing Steam 🧪

In today’s edition:

• Jamie Dimon predicts a “sharp correction”
• Compass and Anywhere send shockwaves
• Zillow publishes Renter Trends Report (spoiler: Renters love floor plans…)

The market correction that has been predicted for so long has felt like a mirage. As you keep walking forward it looks like it is right there in front of you, but when you get to the spot you are simply met with a market reaching a new record high.

The last edition of The Beaker referenced quiet cracks, and it appears things have stayed on that path, and those cracks are making more noise. The economy appears strong, but hiring is weak. Uncertainty for small businesses is creeping back up to levels rarely seen in the last 6 years.

Optimism (pessimism?) for economic conditions by consumers is back down to the good ol’ ‘peak inflation’ days (see nearby chart). 16% of Gen Z rate housing affordability as one of their highest concerns in life. And even Chipotle had to reduce its same store sales growth guidance for the third quarter in a row. Chipotle?? Something is amyss…

📊 PlanOlabs Insights

Proprietary insights into the SFR industry from our research and consulting team

Insight #1: Small Business Uncertainty Index increased to 100 for only the 5th month in the last 7 years

Insight #2: Consumer Index of Economic Conditions dipped below 60 for only the 9th month in the last 7 years

Insight #3: Multifamily Starts are trending up slightly while Single Family Starts are trending down slightly since the beginning of 2024

🎯 What’s Stirring

• Jamie Dimon is bracing for a “sharp correction” within two years, citing AI valuations, thin credit spreads, and geopolitical unease. Dimon questioned investors’ faith in the Fed’s rosy rate-cut forecasts, hinting that the central bank may be boxed in between stubborn prices and softening labor data. That view is quietly being echoed across Wall Street, with investors shifting toward more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples while regional banks, retailers, and homebuilders stumble. The record highs for the market keep climbing, but maybe the AI-driven exuberance is covering up cracks underneath?
• Compass and Anywhere Real Estate announce an all-stock merger that will create a $10 billion real estate giant spanning 340,000 agents across 120 countries. The deal blends Compass’s tech-driven brokerage with Anywhere’s vast franchise network and brands (including Coldwell Banker, Sotheby’s, and Century 21) - an effort to marry software scale with legacy reach. Analysts like Rob Hahn called it “a week when decades happen,” arguing the merger cements Compass as the most powerful brokerage player since Zillow’s rise. Mike DelPrete framed it as a “content play,” giving Compass control over more listings - fuel for its push against portals, NAR, and the MLS. This merger could redefine how (and where) listings are seen.
• Congress moves a bipartisan housing package aimed at easing supply constraints by passing the ROAD to Housing Act. The ROAD to Housing Act (tucked inside the annual defense bill) directs HUD to help localities cut red tape, streamline zoning, and reward pro-housing communities with extra funding. Industry groups from NAR to NMHC praised the bill’s focus on transit-oriented development, faster voucher lease-ups, and permanent disaster-recovery funding. It’s not a silver bullet (is anything?), but it’s a rare sign of alignment on housing in Washington. Next stop: the House.
• Zillow published their 2025 Consumer Housing Trends Report for Renters in October. A few key takeaways:58% of recent renters received concessions like reduced rent or a free month64% of recent renters considered buying during their rental search, up sharply from 46% in 2018 - a sign that the desire to buy a home remains strong but affordability lags
• The share of income spent on rent by a typical renter decreased YOY from 24.9% to 23.4%, according to a report from Realtor.com. National median rent slipped 2.1% year-over-year to $1,703, marking 26 straight months of declines. Markets like Miami, Los Angeles, and New York remain the least affordable (all above 35% of income), while Austin, Oklahoma City, and Raleigh top the list for affordability. The biggest driver? A wave of new multifamily completions across the South and West that’s finally giving renters a little leverage. Given that Multifamily “Starts” are still steady (see nearby chart), that should result in continued downward pressure on rent prices.

📰 SFR In The News

Everyone knows this stuff and you should too.

• Stacey Salyer publishes a guide to peaceful property management
• JLL sells 375-home portfolio
• Pest Share raises $28M in Series A funding
• Blackstone buys BTR community in Phoenix
• Rentvine acquires Rentfinder.AI

The Beaker is a bi-weekly briefing from PlanOmatic on the economy, housing, and the forces shaping both. Have something we should cover? Reply to this email.

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