---
title: Key SFR Data Release Summary for February 2023
description: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher than expected, business owners remain cynical, and home sales are trying to find a bottom.
---

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# [Key SFR Data Release Summary for February 2023](https://www.planomatic.com/blog/key-sfr-data-release-summary-for-february-2023)

 Written by [PlanOmatic](https://www.planomatic.com/blog/author/planomatic) | Feb 28, 2023 6:18:19 PM

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## Monthly Releases: Economic Indicators

### Consumer Price Index

*Bureau of Labor Statistics | *[*Press Release*](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)* | February 14, 2023*

Headline: [Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html) (CNBC)

Key Takeaways:

- CPI **increased 0.5% in January** after increasing 0.1% in December
- CPI **increased 6.4% over the last 12 months** (smallest increase since the 12-month period ending October 2021, the peak was in June 2022 at 9%)
- The index for shelter was **by far the largest contributor** to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase

### Consumer Sentiment

*University of Michigan | *[*Press Release*](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)* | February 24, 2023*

Key Takeaways: 

- Consumer sentiment rose a modest 3% above January (rising for the 3rd consecutive month), while remaining almost **20 points below its historical average**
- Short-run inflation expectations remain uncertain, but there was a **12% improvement **in the short-run economic outlook

### Consumer Spending

*Bureau of Economic Analysis | *[*Press Release*](https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2023)* | February 24, 2023*

Headline: [Inflation surprisingly rose in January, per the Fed’s preferred gauge](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/economy/pce-inflation-january/index.html) (CNN)

Key Takeaways

- Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +2% MoM (December: +0.4% MoM)
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): **+1.8% MoM** (December: -0.1% MoM)
- Core PCE Index: +0.6% MoM – **higher than analysts were expecting** *(NOTE: This is a favorite metric of Fed as it excludes food and energy prices)*

### Small Business Optimism Index

*National Federation of Independent Business | *[*Report*](https://assets.nfib.com/nfibcom/SBET-Jan-2023.pdf)* | February 14, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- SBOI increased 0.5 points in January to 90.3, remaining **below the 49-year average of 98**
- “While inflation is starting to ease for small businesses, **owners remain cynical about future business conditions**,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Owners have a negative outlook on the small business economy **but continue to try to fill open positions** and return to a full staff to improve productivity.”
- If it weren’t for the Job Openings and Hiring Plans components, **the Index would be much lower**. Actual capital spending and inventory investment are very weak as are plans to spend. Earnings are dismal. Actual sales trends are negative and expected real sales are also.

## Monthly Releases: Housing and SFR Data

### Single-Family Rent Index

*CoreLogic | *[*Press Release*](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-us-annual-rent-price-growth-dropped-by-nearly-half-in-december/)* | February 21, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- U.S. single-family rental price growth rose by **6.4%** year over year in December 2022, compared with the **12.1%** gain recorded in December 2021
- “While rent growth has been slowing, it still rose at **more than double the pre-pandemic rate**. Rental price gains began increasing near the end of 2020 and have risen by about an average of $300 in the past two years. Annual single-family rent growth is projected to slow throughout 2023, but it will likely not decline by enough to wipe out gains from the past two years.” -Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic

### Case-Shiller Home Price Index

*S&P CoreLogic | *[*Press Release*](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-decline-continued-in-december/)* | February 28, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- National Index: +5.8% YoY (+7.6% YoY previous month), -0.8% MoM
- December marked the **6th consecutive month of declines**, standing 4.4% below its June 2022 peak
- For 2022 as a whole, the National Index **rose by 5.8%**, compared with 2021’s **record-setting 18.9% gain**

### January Rental Report

*Realtor.com | *[*Press Release*](https://www.realtor.com/research/january-2023-rent/)* | February 24, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- The U.S. rental market experienced single-digit growth for the sixth month in a row, and **twelve months of slowing** from January 2022’s peak of 16.2% growth
- Faster rent growth was seen in some of the** least expensive rental markets** such as Indianapolis, IN (10.5%), Birmingham, AL (8.8%), Columbus, OH (8.3%)

### New Residential Construction

*HUD | *[*Press Release*](https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html)* | February 16, 2023*

Headline 1: [US new home construction fell in January for the fifth straight month](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/homes/new-home-starts-january-2023/index.html) (CNN)

Headline 2: [Single-Family Housing Completions Up 12% YoY](https://dsnews.com/news/02-16-2023/january-2023-monthly-report) (DS News)

Key Takeaways: 

- Building Permits: +0.1% MoM | -27% YoY
- Housing Starts: **-4.5% MoM** | -21% YoY
- Housing Completions: +1% MoM | **+12% YoY**
- **Two consecutive months of improved confidence** by builders in a survey from the NAHB has indicated there is some improvement in building activity, and provides some positive signs for the housing market heading into 2023

### New Residential Sales

*HUD | *[*Press Release*](https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html)* | February 24, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- New Home Sales were up **7.2% MoM**, and down 19.4% YoY
- Inventory of New Homes is at a **supply of 7.9 months** given the current sales rate

### Pending Home Sales Index

*National Association of Realtors | **Press Release** | February 27, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- Increased for the 2nd consecutive month, **up 8.1%** from December 2022, while dropping **24% YoY**.
- NAR anticipates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of **6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024**
- NAR expects annual existing-home sales to **drop 11.1% in 2023** before** jumping 17.7% in 2024**

### Existing Home Sales

*NAR | **Press Release** | February 21, 2023*

Headline: [Existing-home sales fell every single month in 2022](https://www.inman.com/2023/02/21/existing-home-sales-fell-every-single-month-in-2022-new-nar-data-show/) (Inman)

Key Takeaways:

- Existing Home Sales: -0.7% MoM | **-37% YoY** 
    - Northeast: -3.8% MoM | -36% YoY
    - Midwest: -5% MoM | -33% YoY
    - South: +1.1% MoM | -37% YoY
    - West: **+2.9% MoM** | -42% YoY
- “Home sales are **bottoming out**,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.”

## Quarterly Releases

### Metro Home Prices – Q4 2022

*NAR | *[*Press Release*](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nearly-nine-in-10-metro-areas-posted-home-price-gains-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022)* | February 9, 2023*

Key Takeaways:

- The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 – **up 58% year-over-year (or $720)**.
- Less than a fifth of metro markets (**18%**) posted double-digit annual price appreciation (**46% **in the previous quarter)

- “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has **risen 42% in the past three years**,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said

### Invitation Homes Quarterly Earnings

[*Earnings Report*](https://s28.q4cdn.com/264003623/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Q4-2022-Supplemental_FINAL-r.pdf)* | February 16, 2023*

Headline: [Invitation Homes Declined on Disappointing Earnings Results](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/invitation-homes-invh-declined-disappointing-111044324.html) (Yahoo Finance)

Key Takeaways:

- The company disclosed a **new quarterly dividend of $0.26**, up from $0.22 previously. 
- In Q4 2022, Same Store Average Occupancy **was 97.3%**, down 80 basis points year over year. 
- The 2023 Guidance for wholly owned acquisitions is **$250-$300M**, compared to an actual of **$601M** **in 2022**.
- The 2023 Guidance for Same Store Core Revenue Growth is **5.25-6.25%**, compared with a **2022 actual of 9%**, while Guidance for Core Operating Expenses Growth is 7.5-9.5% which is in line with the 2022 actual growth of 8.6%. 
    - Embedded within the assumptions for this guidance is an expected increase in property tax expense, higher turnover operating and capital expense as a result of higher expected turnover in 2023, and expectations around continued inflationary pressures.

### AMH Quarterly Earnings

[*Earnings Report*](https://s29.q4cdn.com/671712101/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/AMH-Fourth-Quarter-2022-Earnings-Release-and-Supplemental-Information-Package.pdf)* | February 24, 2023*

Headline: [American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Meets Q4 FFO Estimates](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/american-homes-4-rent-amh-meets-q4-ffo-estimates) (Nasdaq)

Key Takeaways:

- Rents and other single-family property revenues increased by 12.7% YoY, while Core NOI from Same-Home properties increased by **5.7% YoY**
- Same-Home Average Occupied Days was **97.0% in Q4**, with a similar trend forecasted for 2023
- “**Resident 360**” will be an investment this year and will help optimize repair & maintenance and customer satisfaction in the future
- The FY 2023 guidance includes **no wholly-owned acquisitions** – the focus will be on building BTR homes through the AMH development program

### Tricon Residential Quarterly Earnings

*Coming March 2, 2023*

[View full post](https://www.planomatic.com/blog/key-sfr-data-release-summary-for-february-2023)

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